Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Aaron Judge's MVP odds have declined sharply from 38¢ to 31¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market sentiment about his 2026 prospects despite still commanding the third-highest implied probability on the board.
Analysis
Aaron Judge's MVP odds have declined sharply from 38¢ to 31¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating market sentiment about his 2026 prospects despite still commanding the third-highest implied probability on the board. The 385.6% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 211-day time horizon, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty or skepticism about his ability to win at current odds. With zero 24-hour volume and $945k open interest, liquidity is concentrated but stagnant, making this a relatively illiquid position to exit quickly.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x6f685174c7b5f11a8b7cd7bc7d2d368e634a0ca9016434d323b4cd8c9d8c71b7 yes 100