Will the Republican Party win the FL-10 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome at just 11 cents, implying only an 11% win probability for the GOP in this Democratic-leaning district, yet the asymmetric implied yields (1477% for Yes versus 22.6% for No) suggest significant mispricing or structural imbalance in the market. With only $5.87 in 24-hour volume against $16.4M open interest and 200 days to expiration, liquidity is severely constrained, making the extreme yield figures potentially unreliable and the 1-cent spread deceptive given the thin trading activity. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicates heightened tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty around candidate emergence or demographic shifts in FL-10 rather than fundamental Republican strength in what is historically Democratic territory.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade