Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 86% to retain GA-11, but the extreme 1121.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—a $100 bet on Democratic victory would return $1,221 if correct, suggesting either minimal liquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity. With only $0 in 24-hour volume despite $15,992 open interest and 200 days to expiration, this appears to be a dead or illiquid market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the cliff risk index of 6 indicating potential sharp repricing events. The flat 7-day price action and tight 2¢ spread mask the underlying dysfunction in price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade