Will Ranger Suarez win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Ranger Suarez is priced at 33¢ with a massive 66¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume, indicating severe illiquidity despite $1.66M open interest—this wide spread likely reflects the market's struggle to establish consensus on a pitcher whose 2026 performance remains highly uncertain. The 353% implied yield on the "yes" side is extraordinarily high, compensating for both the low probability and the illiquidity premium, while the extreme realized volatility of 8382% and vol ratio of 15.84 suggest this market has experienced wild price swings with minimal trading activity. With 210 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with limited price discovery rather than an actively traded prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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