Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields (669%), driven by a massive 1338.5% implied yield on the No side despite only a 12% probability, indicating severe underpricing of the Democratic upset scenario relative to the Republican baseline. With $0 in 24-hour volume against $15k open interest and 200 days to expiration, liquidity is essentially frozen, making the 88¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this market may experience sharp repricing if new information emerges about GA-10's competitive dynamics or candidate quality.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade