Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?

This market shows an extremely bearish view of Republican prospects in Illinois's 2nd District, with the Yes price collapsed to just 4¢ from 7¢ a week ago—a 43% decline that suggests either new polling data or shifting fundamentals favoring Democrats in this likely blue-leaning seat. The implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high at 4381%, reflecting the massive leverage available on a deeply underpriced outcome, though this comes with elevated cliff risk (24) and thin 24-hour volume of just $223.80 relative to the $19M open interest. With 200 days until resolution and a zero spread, this market appears to be pricing in near-certainty of Democratic retention, making it suitable only for contrarian bettors confident in an unlikely Republican upset.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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