Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?

This market reflects overwhelming confidence in Republican retention of Kentucky's safely red 5th district, with the Yes position priced at 94¢ implying a 94% win probability, though the extreme 2,849.9% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity and mispricing on that tail outcome. With zero 24-hour volume despite $33,435 in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, the market appears inactive and potentially stale, making the quoted prices unreliable for actual trading. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election and moderate cliff risk score of 16 suggest this is a relatively stable market, but traders should be cautious given the lack of recent price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade