Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats as overwhelming favorites at 93¢, reflecting Hawaii's deep blue electoral lean, though the 1¢ spread and $87.5K daily volume suggest moderate liquidity for a state-level race. The extreme 2416.7% implied yield on the No side is a classic artifact of pricing near certainty—it reflects minimal real probability rather than genuine opportunity. With over $20.6M in open interest and a modest 1-cent decline over seven days, this appears to be a stable consensus market without unusual volatility or cross-venue arbitrage signals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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