Will Torey Lovullo win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.15M open interest and an unusually wide 85¢ spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 196% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the neutral regime and 247-day timeframe, indicating either significant mispricing or market participants pricing in substantial uncertainty around Lovullo's 2026 managerial prospects. The realized volatility of 2442% and 13.78 vol ratio are anomalously elevated, likely reflecting the illiquid nature of this contract rather than genuine price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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