Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Adam Crum's advancement odds are priced at an extremely depressed 11¢ with zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal trader interest despite $11.5M open interest and a wide 7¢ spread that indicates low liquidity. The astronomical 2401% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with 841% realized volatility and a cliff risk index of 8 reveals this is a highly speculative, illiquid position where the pricing may not reflect true probability—typical of niche political markets with sparse trading activity. With 123 days until the August 2026 primary and only 1.2 information arrivals per hour, the market lacks sufficient data flow to establish reliable price discovery, making this contract suitable primarily for contrarian bettors comfortable with execution risk.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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