Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

This market shows extreme volatility and pricing inconsistency, with the Yes contract trading at 38¢ despite an extraordinary 3232% annualized yield that suggests severe underpricing relative to the 22-day expiry. The 7-day price collapse from 50¢ to 37¢ (26% decline) combined with a realized volatility of 4383% and very thin liquidity ($36.16 daily volume against $13.9k open interest) indicates this is likely a low-information market subject to sharp repricing as the May 9 resolution date approaches. The 7¢ spread and elevated info arrival rate (5.0/hour) suggest traders are actively reassessing, though the modest $13.9k open interest limits confidence in the pricing's reliability.

Resolution rules

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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Regime

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