Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 649% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and a wide 22¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity rather than genuine conviction at 17¢.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 649% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and a wide 22¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity rather than genuine conviction at 17¢. The 2044% realized volatility and 7.93 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position where the price likely reflects minimal actual trading rather than informed probability assessment. With 256 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 5, this appears to be a low-liquidity trap where the 17¢ price should be treated cautiously—the No side's 31.3% yield is more reasonable but the $1.1M open interest concentrated in an illiquid venue suggests limited market depth.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x74bb6fe3ed4c49c44a0ca24dc3673c2de5dc979ec8fce1403db25c0d7077d651 yes 100