Will Albania come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

Albania's 5-cent price reflects a 5% probability of last place at Eurovision 2026, but the market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1.013 in 24-hour volume against $4.2k open interest and a wide 7-cent spread, making the quoted price potentially unreliable. The implied yield of 26,320% on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the low price and thin liquidity rather than genuine expected value. With 26 days until close and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the small position size and poor liquidity make it difficult to assess whether 5% genuinely reflects Albania's Eurovision odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Regime

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