Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican probability at 90¢, but the extreme 1637.1% implied yield on the "No" side and near-zero 24-hour volume of $0 suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 9/10 Cliff Risk Index combined with $24.5K open interest indicates this thin market could experience sharp repricing if new information emerges before the November 2026 election, making the current price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade