Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Spain's dominance in Group H is priced at 77¢, reflecting strong confidence in their qualification prospects, though the 4¢ spread and modest $451.83 daily volume suggest limited liquidity for a market with over $11.2M open interest. The extreme 1720.7% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing or minimal conviction among contrarian bettors, while realized volatility of 439% signals this market has experienced substantial price swings despite the relatively stable 80¢-to-77¢ movement over seven days. With 71 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a straightforward favorites market where the high concentration of capital on Spain leaves little room for profitable contrarian positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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