Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats at a substantial 67% win probability with notably asymmetric risk: the "No" side offers a striking 370.6% implied yield compared to just 89.9% for "Yes," suggesting significant tail risk priced into a Republican upset despite the current Democratic lean. Volume is extremely thin at $56.37 in 24 hours against $29.9M open interest, creating a liquidity concern that's amplified by the wide 7¢ spread and elevated realized volatility of 341%, indicating this contract may be vulnerable to sharp repricing on limited order flow or new political information arriving at 1.1 events per hour.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade