Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Republicans at a modest 41% win probability with notably asymmetric payoff structures—the Yes side offers an exceptional 262.7% implied yield compared to just 126.9% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Republican chances or heavy Democratic positioning. Volume is thin at just $10.95 in 24-hour trading against $33M open interest, creating potential liquidity concerns, though the tight 2¢ spread indicates reasonable market efficiency. The neutral regime score (0.341) and minimal 7-day price movement (39¢ to 41¢) suggest the market has stabilized, though the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine edge or simply reflects the structural imbalance in a low-volume market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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