Will the Democratic Party win the TN-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,416.7% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the 7¢ price that prices in only a 7% Democratic win probability in a district that has historically leaned Republican. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $35,472 in open interest suggests illiquidity and potential stale pricing, while the 13 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk as we approach the November 2026 election. The 201-day timeframe provides substantial opportunity for market repricing if Democratic fundamentals in TN-02 shift materially, making this a high-risk/high-reward position for contrarian bettors.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade