Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

The 8% probability pricing appears severely mispriced given the extreme 5671% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant risk aversion or illiquidity concerns despite $108M open interest. Crude would need to rally roughly 90% from current levels (~$92) to hit $175 by end-June 2026, a move that realized volatility of 644% makes theoretically possible but the neutral regime and declining 7-day price trend (8¢ to 7¢) indicate market skepticism. The modest $18K daily volume and tight 1¢ spread mask potential execution challenges for larger positions, and the 12 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution on tail-event exposure near expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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