Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Craig Counsell's odds have collapsed 55% over seven days (from 33¢ to 15¢), suggesting significant negative information about his managerial prospects or the Cubs' 2026 outlook.
Analysis
Craig Counsell's odds have collapsed 55% over seven days (from 33¢ to 15¢), suggesting significant negative information about his managerial prospects or the Cubs' 2026 outlook. The 838% implied yield on "Yes" reflects extreme illiquidity with only $1,375 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making this a speculative micro-market where the 30¢ spread indicates genuine uncertainty rather than efficient pricing. The 3,416% realized volatility and 15.74 vol ratio signal this contract experiences outsized swings typical of thin markets with infrequent trading activity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7c9a552a19bdbe7287c66bb5c2cedfe62e1949ccff648c286e078cbbd398ffff yes 100