Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and a 71¢ spread suggests minimal trading activity, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true probability of 30-year mortgages hitting 5.70% by end-2026. The extreme realized volatility of 2,111% and vol ratio of 16.71 indicate wild historical price swings that don't align with the modest 1¢ movement over seven days, suggesting the metric may reflect thin-market distortions rather than genuine uncertainty. At current rates around 4.2-4.3%, the market is pricing in roughly a 45% chance of a 140-160 basis point increase over 259 days, which appears reasonable but warrants skepticism given the negligible liquidity and potential for sharp repricing if volume materializes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

Indicators

Regime

Trade