Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Scotland's 5¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of winning Group C, with an extraordinary 9778.5% implied yield on YES contracts that vastly outpaces the 27.1% yield on NO—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep undervaluation or near-zero genuine chance.
Analysis
Scotland's 5¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of winning Group C, with an extraordinary 9778.5% implied yield on YES contracts that vastly outpaces the 27.1% yield on NO—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep undervaluation or near-zero genuine chance. The $30.4k open interest against just $1.5k daily volume indicates illiquid positioning with potential for sharp repricing if Scotland's odds shift, though the stable 71-day timeline and flat 7-day price action suggest the market has settled on this consensus valuation. The 19 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as late-stage information about group composition or team form could trigger sudden volatility closer to the June 2026 tournament.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x810354c62431246e10c094cb357e8209994a467145fc9801d2f1965c8ac5f3ce yes 100