Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The 7¢ price implies an extremely low 7% probability for Santos finishing second, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2,841% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or deep skepticism about his viability. With $25.2M open interest but only $710k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to the stakes, and the 2¢ spread indicates some pricing uncertainty. The market has drifted upward from 5¢ to 7¢ over seven days with 171 days to expiry, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and moderate cliff risk (13) suggest no imminent resolution catalysts are driving sharp moves.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade