Will Mark Kotsay win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.3M open interest, paired with a massive 58¢ bid-ask spread and an unusually high 362% implied yield on the "Yes" side—suggesting the 29¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The realized volatility of 6,866% and 164% price surge over seven days (11¢ to 29¢) indicate sharp recent repricing, though the neutral regime score and low information arrival rate (0.6/h) suggest limited fundamental catalysts are driving current positioning. With 247 days to expiry and a 2 cliff risk index, this appears to be a thinly-traded speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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