Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title?
0x845cece2c4bf0d954f6cc88ff97c43e6a8926ac5d8e6b969f39bdcc233e662e5 · closes Oct 11, 2026 · 179 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 475.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 87.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.07 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 303% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.41 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 444% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
86 indicator snapshots · 16 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB American League West division. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named the 2026 American League West division champion per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x845cece2c4bf0d954f6cc88ff97c43e6a8926ac5d8e6b969f39bdcc233e662e5 yes 100