AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
0x4632e96b7010fa4c1474d876f178539f11a284761c08842db5dd2e737cf6341b · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 262 days remaining
Price
Last
22¢
Bid
20¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
3¢
24h Volume
$4,372.66
Open Interest
$10,741.522
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 494.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 855% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.23 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 427% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
113 indicator snapshots · 19 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 11:31:50 AM
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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