Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

The Guardians ALCS contract is pricing in an extremely low 4% win probability with a striking 4409% implied yield on the Yes side, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $12.6M in open interest, suggesting this extreme yield reflects illiquidity rather than genuine edge. The 2¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate the market may be mispriced due to thin trading, as the risk-adjusted yield of 2205% still vastly exceeds typical market returns. With 199 days to expiration and the Guardians as a competitive AL team, this contract warrants monitoring for potential value opportunities if volume increases.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade