Will Georgia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Georgia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. This market displays extreme distress signals with a 19,708% implied yield on the "Yes" side despite zero 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread, suggesting the 6¢ price may be stale or artificially low given the illiquidity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme distress signals with a 19,708% implied yield on the "Yes" side despite zero 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread, suggesting the 6¢ price may be stale or artificially low given the illiquidity. The 4,367% realized volatility and 16 cliff risk index indicate this is a highly unstable market prone to sharp repricing, likely reflecting uncertainty about Georgia's Eurovision 2026 participation or competitive positioning rather than genuine consensus that they'll finish last. With only 29 days to resolution and minimal trading activity, this appears to be a low-conviction, low-liquidity market where the quoted price should be treated with significant skepticism.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x868c5ba03cd4ad7d658e66acaa4c801bdf1cf3f4bfaecae6e285ffcaf53ece0f yes 100