Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?

The Republican contract at 75¢ reflects a strong but not overwhelming favorite position in OH-07, though the extreme 545.7% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing—traders betting against Republicans would need only a 0.18% probability to break even, suggesting minimal conviction in the Democratic case despite the lopsided price. With 201 days to expiry, $12.7K open interest, and just $335 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to the stakes, and the 181% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced significant swings despite the stable 7-day price action. The 2.33 vol ratio and 3.0 cliff risk index suggest occasional sharp repricing events, likely driven by sparse information arrival (0.5/hour), making this a market where large position moves could shift prices meaningfully.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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