Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing GA-04 at just 5¢, implying a 95% Democratic lean in this traditionally blue district, yet the extreme 3,467% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or speculative positioning rather than genuine uncertainty. With $16.6M open interest against only $2.9M in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for such a high-stakes binary, and the 1,971% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced wild swings despite the stable 7-day price holding at 5¢. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and 2.53 vol ratio warrant caution—this appears to be a conviction market where the consensus is extremely strong but potentially vulnerable to information shocks over the 200-day window.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade