Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme conviction in Republican dominance of Tennessee's 1st congressional district, with the Yes position priced at 94¢ reflecting a 94% win probability, yet the No side offers a staggering 2,849.7% implied yield—a massive asymmetry that signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $34.7M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a deeply one-sided market where the No position is essentially illiquid and priced as a lottery ticket. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 16, there's adequate time for price discovery, but the current structure indicates minimal market activity and potential difficulty exiting No positions at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade