Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?

This market shows extreme annualized yields exceeding 2500% on both sides, reflecting the very short 14-day window to resolution coinciding with the April 30 Destatis release date—creating cliff risk that explains the elevated volatility metrics (657% realized vol, 1.40 vol ratio). The 17¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 51¢ mid-price, suggesting thin liquidity despite $378k open interest, and the modest $109 daily volume indicates limited conviction among traders on whether German Q1 2026 GDP will land in this narrow 0.1-0.3% band. The 5-point price rise over 7 days (46¢ to 51¢) combined with a 3.6/hour info arrival rate suggests recent data or sentiment shifted slightly toward the "yes" outcome, though the neutral regime score indicates no strong directional bias.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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