Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 78% across 5 contracts. Kalshi at 90%, Polymarket at 29% — a 61pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
90%
4 contracts
Polymarket
29%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
61pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
239 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 90¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 61pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (90¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2” vs “Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0%”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.4
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.0
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.6
Cluster 2
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0%
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0%
0xe531b0…8c27
Analysis
This contract estimates a 44% chance that Germany's economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 falls between 0.4% and 0.6% year-over-year. The probability reflects significant disagreement between venues—Kalshi traders at 48% versus Polymarket at 27%—suggesting genuine uncertainty about German economic momentum. Germany's growth prospects depend heavily on industrial production trends, consumer spending patterns, and external demand from eurozone partners. The key driver pushing probability downward is concern over manufacturing weakness and structural headwinds facing Europe's largest economy. Resolution will come with the official GDP flash estimate, typically released in late April or early May 2026. The wide venue gap indicates traders lack consensus on whether Germany will show modest recovery or continued stagnation in the quarter.
- ›German manufacturing PMI and industrial production data from Q1 2026 show whether the sector sustained momentum or contracted further
- ›Consumer confidence indices and retail sales figures indicate domestic demand strength relative to consensus expectations of 0.4-0.6% growth
- ›Q1 2026 exports and trade balance data reveal whether external demand from other eurozone economies supported or hindered growth
- ›Kalshi's higher probability (48%) versus Polymarket (27%) suggests different interpretation of flash estimates, possibly reflecting differing weighting of preliminary versus final data
- ›Official Destatis GDP flash release for Q1 2026 will directly resolve the contract with definitive year-over-year growth figure
What moved the line
- Jun 16.0-7.0%↑16pp13→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 306.0-7.0%↓10pp23→13¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in recession
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 3d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 6d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 6d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 6d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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