Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat?

This market shows extremely lopsided pricing with Democrats priced at 91¢ implying a heavily favored outcome, yet the No side carries an extraordinary 1846% implied yield compared to just 18.1% for Yes, reflecting the asymmetric risk profile of a low-probability event. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $18.3K open interest and a tight 2¢ spread suggests minimal recent trading activity and potential illiquidity despite the seemingly confident price, which could indicate stale pricing or limited market participation. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be pricing in a strong Democratic lean for AZ-07 but warrants caution given the zero volume and the extreme yield skew that suggests either very confident positioning or pricing inefficiency.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade