Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 10% probability that gold settles above $6,500 by late June 2026, implying the market expects gold to remain below that level despite current spot prices around $2,400—a disconnect suggesting either unrealistic strike pricing or data error. The 4442% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the severe illiquidity ($0 in 24h volume) and wide 12¢ spread, which distorts the risk-reward calculation; with only $6.8K in open interest, this market lacks meaningful price discovery. The Cliff Risk Index of 9 signals extreme tail risk, and the stagnant price at 10¢ over 7 days combined with 74 days to expiry suggests this contract may be mispriced or abandoned by traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

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