Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 94¢, reflecting South Dakota's strong Republican lean, but the extreme 2,860% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity on the Democratic outcome with only $19,391 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 122% realized volatility and 3.55 vol ratio suggest this thin market experiences outsized price swings, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable for the true probability despite the tight 2¢ spread.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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