Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat?

The Republican contract at 20¢ reflects a heavily Democratic-favored district, with the No side offering a modest 45.9% annualized yield versus an extreme 734.7% yield on the Yes side—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep undervaluation of Republican chances or severe illiquidity concerns. With zero 24-hour volume despite $1.6M open interest and an 11¢ spread, this market lacks meaningful liquidity to validate the pricing; the 609% realized volatility and 2.44 vol ratio indicate extreme price swings on minimal trading activity. The recent price movement from 17¢ to 19¢ over seven days combined with the neutral regime score and low information arrival rate (0.3/h) suggest the market may be drifting on thin order flow rather than fundamental developments, warranting caution before treating the 20¢ price as reliable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade