Will Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

Mark Lohan's odds have collapsed dramatically from 20¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrived about his candidacy or electability in Galway West. The 1,391% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme mispricing or illiquidity risk rather than genuine opportunity, given the zero 24-hour volume and wide 11¢ spread on just $1.8M open interest. With 349 days until expiry and a neutral market regime, this appears to be a low-liquidity, speculative position where the sharp price decline may signal informed traders exiting rather than a true probability shift.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade