Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $20.9M open interest, suggesting positions are largely static and difficult to exit. The 14¢ price implies Democrats have only a 14% chance in this traditionally Republican district, which aligns with NY-11's historical lean, though the astronomical 1117% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure. The 2¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks conviction, and with 201 days to expiry, significant price discovery may occur as the 2026 cycle intensifies.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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