Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1567% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 35% on the "No" side, suggesting the 15¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of United Russia capturing 310-324 seats given the party's historical dominance (they held 324 seats in the 2021 election). The 608% realized volatility and 7 cliff risk index indicate substantial uncertainty, though the modest 24-hour volume of $61 and $11k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the September 2026 election approaches. The recent price decline from 16¢ to 15¢ combined with a 1.72 volatility ratio warrants monitoring for whether this represents genuine repricing or temporary illiquidity-driven movement.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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