Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 738% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 16¢ pricing, suggesting either severe illiquidity or structural undervaluation of November's probability. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $7.7M open interest and a wide 2¢ spread indicates this is a low-liquidity, potentially illiquid position where the price may not reflect true consensus. The recent 2¢ price decline over seven days and neutral regime score offer no directional conviction, but the asymmetric yield profile (738% vs 26.8%) warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine market inefficiency or simply thin trading conditions that could reverse sharply.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.

Indicators

Regime

Trade