Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided outcome with Democrats at 92¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $17.9K open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price—likely reflecting stale positioning rather than active trading. The asymmetric implied yields (15.9% for Yes vs. 2099% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicate substantial tail risk, suggesting the market may be overconfident in the Democratic hold given Indiana's Republican lean in recent cycles. With 200 days to expiry, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the extreme price may not reflect genuine market consensus on what is historically a competitive or Republican-leaning district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade