Will the Democratic Party win the OR-04 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Oregon's 4th district, with the 92¢ price implying a 92% win probability, yet the extraordinarily high 2,124.6% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns rather than genuine conviction. The $20,029.81 open interest against just $5 in 24-hour volume indicates this is a thin, inactive market where the extreme price may not reflect true market consensus, and the 12 Cliff Risk Index score suggests potential for sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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