Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. The 4¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Saudi Arabia to win Group H, though the astronomical 12,342.7% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity at the bid.
Analysis
The 4¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Saudi Arabia to win Group H, though the astronomical 12,342.7% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity at the bid. With $38.6M open interest but only $742K in 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to support such extreme yield calculations, suggesting the Yes side is artificially thin. The neutral regime score and modest 7-day price stability (3¢ to 4¢) indicate the market hasn't reacted to recent news, though with 71 days until expiry, there's ample time for Group H composition and odds to shift materially.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8f9555e6c4da9369ac9bc23c250bb697aab93593cc06776febe0fad48add06ec yes 100