Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (1239% realized vol) and a massive yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering 274.6% implied yield versus 72.9% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk concerns about Evloev's championship prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (1239% realized vol) and a massive yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering 274.6% implied yield versus 72.9% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk concerns about Evloev's championship prospects. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 34¢ price, and zero 24-hour volume combined with $665k open interest indicates illiquidity that likely explains the distorted pricing. With 258 days to expiration and a 9.98 vol ratio, this appears to be a thin, speculative position where the market may be overweighting either Evloev's injury risk or the difficulty of capturing a featherweight title rather than reflecting true championship probability.
Also on kalshi at 25¢(Δ +11¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0x902cd112c189e1afa85c511a3f7d50262af39ff7ff755bd9f2ce8e9849820e25 yes 100