Will the Republican Party win the PA-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Republican probability of just 5¢ despite PA-02 being a competitive district that Republicans could plausibly contest, evidenced by the astronomical 3456% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 9.6% on the No side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $16.8M open interest and a 1¢ spread suggests the market is illiquid and potentially stale, with the 1,659% realized volatility and 19 cliff risk index indicating significant tail risk and potential for sharp repricing. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a mispriced long opportunity for Republicans unless there's fundamental information about the district that justifies such a bearish consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade