Will the Democratic Party win the WY-AL House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.8% on the No side, reflecting the 8¢ price in a heavily Republican-leaning district where Democrats have virtually no recent competitive history. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $28,320 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a low-liquidity position market where the price may not reflect genuine probability so much as illiquidity premium on a deeply out-of-the-money bet. With 201 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, this remains a speculative long-shot position rather than a liquid prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade