Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16.8K open interest, indicating trapped positions and minimal price discovery. The 94¢ price implies near-certainty of Democratic victory in LA-02, but the asymmetric implied yields (11.7% for Yes vs. 2859.6% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 suggest the No position is severely mispriced or represents a liquidity trap rather than genuine Republican opportunity. With 200 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this market appears to be a one-way bet that has already priced in the outcome, making it unsuitable for contrarian positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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