Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

The Yes side offers an extreme 11,850% implied yield with only 4% probability priced in, suggesting either severe underpricing or deep skepticism about ceasefire prospects in a 74-day window—the sharp 9¢ to 4¢ price collapse over 7 days indicates recent negative sentiment shift. The 4,982% realized volatility and 24 Cliff Risk Index reveal this is a highly unstable market with binary resolution risk, while the thin $103.62 daily volume and $8,969 open interest create liquidity concerns that could amplify price swings near expiration. The 2.7 info arrivals per hour suggest active news flow around Sudan's conflict, making this a speculative play on near-term diplomatic breakthroughs rather than a fundamental probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

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