Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
0x92197207636b8e30492f9d25e0833677914a178ff91113980f6f0fc8f0392746 · closes Jul 31, 2026 · 107 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for the Senate in South Carolina? · match confidence 0.49 · close-time delta 2295h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 75.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1557.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 102% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.17 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1557% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
67 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x92197207636b8e30492f9d25e0833677914a178ff91113980f6f0fc8f0392746 yes 100